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                LOW LATITUDE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

                     ISSUED: 13:45 UTC, 20 NOVEMBER 2003

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            *** POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 21 NOVEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 20 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 20 - 21 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 100, 40, 20, 20 (20 NOVEMBER  - 23 NOVEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 18 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM LOW LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS PERSIST)

   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO NEVADA TO UTAH TO COLORADO TO NORTHERN KANSAS TO
   MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   CENTRAL FRANCE TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO CZECH REPUBLIC TO POLAND TO NORTHERN
   UKRAINE AND BELARUS TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.

   NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO OBSERVE
   PERIODS OF POTENTIALLY STRONG ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

     A developing severe geomagnetic storm is in-progress. The impact of a
coronal mass ejection from the 18 November flare activity has significantly
intensified levels of geomagnetic and auroral storm activity. Auroral
activity has been strong enough to be viewed from many lower-latitude
regions. This may be a fairly long-duration disturbance. There is a fair
chance activity will still be strong by the time Europe sees nightfall. The
activity might not last long enough for North Americans to observe
substantial activity.

     This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
21 November. It will then be updated, downgraded to a watch or allowed to
expire altogether. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Warning  **